Economic Brief: Global Uncertainty and Potential Effects on Capital Inflows into CAREC

The economic brief discussed the current heightened global uncertainty which goes along with the threat of less demand for CAREC export goods, and weaker GDP growth and tax revenues. Especially, oil and gas exporters might suffer from lower commodity prices and feel pressure on the exchange rates.

Initially, the global uncertainty was triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. However, there are also much deeper, structural issues at work. One of them is trade wars, very likely only temporarily calmed by the United States-People’s Republic of China “phase one” deal. Another one is the increasing rivalry among major global oil producers.

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